Fed Assurances Stave Off Inflation to Supports Stocks

Although today’s economic calendar was light, data in Manufacturing pointed to expansion in this phase of the business cycle. Pent-up demand is driving this growth and putting upward pressure on commodity prices, such as Gold and Oil. Energy and Basic Materials stocks easily outperformed the stock market indexes and all other major sectors. The Federal Reserve, for its part, provided…

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“Transitory Inflation” Gains Credibility with Wall Street

Even though the market ended the week with an impressive two-day rally underscored by the superior performance of large-cap tech and small-cap stocks, it was not enough to prevent a weekly loss. In lieu of this, a few new insights were learned about the character of this market or its cycle:

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Market Rally Legitimate or a Dead Cat Bounce?

Was today’s trading session a legitimate rally or a dead cat bounce? There were certainly some notable catalysts supporting its legitimacy: 1) the CDC announcement to lift mask requirements for anyone fully vaccinated; 2) Fed bankers defiantly jawboning for lower interest rates in the face of “transitory inflation” data evident in producer prices; and 3) the ongoing improvement in the US labor market. Does anyone sense a “but” statement forthcoming in this analysis?

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Capital Markets Technically Speaking: 3-26-2021

SP-500: Bullish reversal is in play and now it needs to overcome resistance @ 3984 to confirm legitimacy. 10-Yr Note Yield: Bullish reversal is indicating a resumption in rising rates. Bitcoin: Selling has ceased and another bullish reversal pattern has formed to establish a higher low on the recent pullback. This translates into continuation of the bullish trend.

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